00:00Michelle, war on, peace deal on. Hard to make sense. What is going on and what are you folks hearing
00:07as to is there really a peace deal in place?
00:11Well, you're right, Carol, that we've kind of been in this mode for some time and you're right to feel
00:15like this is familiar.
00:16You know, Washington has a way of recycling tropes in times like these and Groundhog Day is certainly one that
00:21we continue to draw back on.
00:22But for good reason. We've been here before where the president is pushing this sort of dual track of semi
00:28-contradictory statements where he's saying, you know, yes, there will be more strikes on Iran.
00:33And then he says at the same time, the negotiations are going well and the final deal is near.
00:39That's where we were at this morning. But with this semi-reversal, at least on the strikes front, we're kind
00:46of in a similar place.
00:47Well, we just don't know yet what what will happen next and how true to reality his his rhetoric is
00:53at this point.
00:54So one thing I would caution you read out in his post, of course, that list of countries that he
00:58says have agreed to some framework of a deal and in concepts and in practice.
01:03That list has a notable omission, and that is Iran. So we've been here before.
01:08But analysts, especially those who have studied Iran, who have or Iranian historians, Persian Empire historians will tell you this
01:15is a civilization.
01:16This is a current government and regime that likes to slow walk these things is fine waiting it out as
01:22the president kind of scrambles to try to finish something that he started on a timeline that has has gone
01:28long past what they initially said it would take.
01:30And I'm just going to say, Michelle, I've got a Bloomberg terminal user actually messaging me and talking about a
01:35source and I want to confirm it, but saying Iran and Israel are both denying existence of any agreement.
01:40I am looking. Do we have and that's what I'm thinking about, Tim.
01:43Like, do we have any confirmation from Israel or Iran or anybody else that this deal is real?
01:49Well, you might know better than I, Carol, if you've got the terminal right in front of you, because since
01:53I've been sitting here, it may something may have happened.
01:55And we're right to be following, you know, Israel, I'm sure, is very quick to to point out whether or
02:01not they they feel something has ended.
02:03Again, I have nothing confirmed. I'm just saying like a Bloomberg terminal user who, you know, folks in the market
02:07are obviously pulling into different news sources as well.
02:10So it's sure. And yet and and it's a good time also to urge caution, you know, on the sourcing
02:15on that, because, as you know, throughout the war,
02:17we've been dealing with a lot of Iranian state media headlines that have to be kind of verified and also
02:23checked against what Iranian officials might say.
02:26And then, of course, ultimately how they might act in response to, you know, various developments on this side.
02:33And at the same time, you know, we've heard conflicting signals both from the president, but from other administration officials
02:38as we all try to work out what is actually happening in those talks.
02:42And and that's a whole other subject, too, by the way, that we're going to have to tackle in the
02:45coming days if we are actually close to a deal is that there are a lot of parties involved.
02:49And we listed many of them in that post and, you know, that Trump just put out.
02:54And many of them have varying interests in in touting a deal is nigh or saying it's not nigh.
03:01And things need to be worked out on various sticking points that have persisted throughout the conflict.
03:06Michelle, speaking of sticking points, the nuclear issue, that's the sticking point.
03:10I mean, that is the entire reason the president laid out for us earlier this year about why he decided
03:15to go to war with Iran.
03:17Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon is what he is, what the president says.
03:21What about the enrichment of uranium?
03:24Do we have any details at this point about what a deal looks like that, again, like the president says,
03:30has been agreed to, you know, by all these parties when it comes to nuclear enrichment?
03:35Well, Tim, I think you're right to point out that that's at the core of this and is is maybe
03:40the major sticking point of about four or five major sticking points.
03:44We just don't know at this point what might be confirmed, where they might be coming a little bit closer
03:49together on the idea of, you know, removing the highly enriched uranium.
03:53If you do remove it, where would it go?
03:56The U.S. and Iran have disagreed on that point.
03:59Iran at times has said they'd be OK with sending it to China or Russia.
04:03The U.S. says, no, that's a deal breaker.
04:05So, you know, either the U.S. would take it or they would send it to some other site that
04:09would be acceptable.
04:10That is still very much in the air and unclear where they have landed in those negotiations.
04:14But those negotiations themselves have been complicated by a number of factors, including the fact that you've got the main
04:21decision maker in Iran, the Ayatollah, hold up in an undisclosed location, you know, in a secure location in the
04:30north of a country that's very hard to reach.
04:31And perhaps it's taking, as U.S. officials have said, many days to get messages back and forth, even through
04:38the intermediaries like Pakistan, like Qatar, who have been helping out in these negotiations.
04:43So there's a lot of complicated back and forth at work.
04:46And so we do need to kind of take every message from either side with caution and just kind of
04:52verify whether or not both sides have actually agreed to any one of many sticking points still to be worked
04:58out.
04:58Yeah. I mean, who's doing the negotiating at this point?
05:01You know, I thought what was interesting, there was a story earlier on the Bloomberg about senior national security officials
05:07from the United Arab Emirates and Iran holding a face-to-face meeting for the first time since the start
05:12of the U.S.-Israeli War against Tehran, according to people with knowledge of the situation.
05:18And I just am curious, you know, where's the U.S. position in all of this?
05:22Like, who's making this happen?
05:24Because there's so much at stake for so many different entities, if you will, for Iran, for the United States,
05:29for Israel, for the Middle East region.
05:31I'm just not quite aware to figure out, like, who's in charge here and who's driving it.
05:37Well, it's a great question, Carol, and I think one thing we can say for sure is that things have
05:41moved beyond where they were in that first round of direct negotiations that took place in Islamabad, you know, however
05:47many weeks ago that was.
05:50But it seems that, at least on the U.S. side, that they're taking a different tack, that Trump, you
05:55know, noticeably and publicly grew impatient with Iran and, you know, has been unwilling to send the likes of Steve
06:02Wyckoff and Jared Kushner to any other location to interact with them.
06:07But at the same time, you know, Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio have been involved.
06:13On the other side, we're still unsure exactly how those negotiations are happening, but we do know it is a
06:20complex set of people involved on the Iranian side.
06:24And then, of course, you have other major players, aside from those playing intermediary, like we mentioned Qatar and Pakistan,
06:31you do have, you know, Israel foremost as one party that has been very vocal in all of this and
06:37certainly plays a big role in how this thing finishes, when it finishes.
06:43And they, by the way, yesterday were reiterating that the Iran war is far from over.
06:48So it's kind of cutting against the messaging that Trump wants to promote of a final deal being near peace,
06:53being at hand and no need, at least for now, for those additional strikes tonight.
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