00:00We are watching the Gulf for the possibility of a first tropical system as we head in the next week.
00:08I talked about this last week, the storm of corn.
00:11Jeff Cornish has been updating you as well on the forecast feed.
00:13I want to do that as well as we go through today.
00:17Remember, this time of the year, you look for homegrown development.
00:20You need to get an interaction between the jet stream and the tropics to start the process for showers and
00:25thunderstorms
00:26and eventually get development here.
00:29This is how it works.
00:31Watch what happens.
00:32The jet stream comes south.
00:33Now, what it does is it does a couple of things.
00:35It either brings the frontal boundary south or an upper low.
00:41And what happens is those systems, the upper lower front, starts to produce showers and thunderstorms either in the Gulf,
00:47the Caribbean,
00:49or off the southeast coast of the Atlantic, southeast coast of the U.S., depending on how far this dip
00:55in the jet stream goes.
00:56You'll get an area of low pressure to form, right?
00:59And if that low can sit over the warm waters, it can slowly develop into a tropical system.
01:06Now, a lot of times this year you get subtropical storms.
01:10That is, systems that have both non-tropical and tropical characteristics.
01:13The reason it's non-tropical is this.
01:16The jet stream coming south, right?
01:18That's not truly tropical.
01:20All right.
01:20The question is, do we have a pattern where the jet stream is going to be dipping south?
01:27And the answer is we do.
01:29I want to show it to you right here.
01:31Let's go to a two box.
01:32Okay.
01:34This is the European model as we get into Thursday and Friday.
01:38Watch what's happening here.
01:39Let me go to today.
01:41Later today.
01:42You see this?
01:42Now watch what happens.
01:44This dip in the jet stream, look what it does.
01:46It comes all the way south.
01:48See?
01:49Here we go into Friday.
01:51Right here.
01:51You see this?
01:52Doesn't look like much, but you've got this dip in the jet stream coming on south.
01:56Right in here.
01:57You see that?
01:58That's the European model.
02:00Let me show you the American.
02:01Same time frame into Friday.
02:03Look what happens.
02:04The dip in the jet stream is all the way down here.
02:07All right?
02:07So yes, you're getting the jet stream that comes southward, and that's going to be interacting
02:12with the tropics.
02:14And if you look at the surface map for those times, you see what's going on?
02:20You're starting to get, this is GFS European.
02:22You're starting to get showers and thunderstorms down here.
02:25Right in here.
02:26So you already got the process started.
02:30At the very least, what this dip in the jet stream is going to do, it's going to draw
02:34tropical moisture northward.
02:36Now the question is, does that tropical moisture exist, or is it part of the computer model's
02:43imagination?
02:44Well, take a look at the satellite already.
02:46What do you see?
02:47Look what's going on.
02:48You've got this moisture already in here.
02:51You've got moisture here in the Pacific.
02:53And when you look, look at what's going on.
02:57You're already getting a feed of moisture northward.
03:00And this is what's helping to produce the thunderstorms in the southeast this afternoon, and the severe weather in the
03:06mid-Atlantic, because you've already got a tropical feed.
03:08In fact, you're already starting to build this upper low.
03:12So that's going to draw the moisture northward.
03:15The question is, can you get anything to develop?
03:18I think at the very least, at the very least, you're going to get a surge of tropical moisture
03:23and some heavy rain in the Florida as we head into early next week.
03:28All right, let me take a look at the Caribbean and Gulf.
03:33We'll take a look at it together here, and we can see what's going on.
03:36Let's start with Friday.
03:37We're going to take a look at the European model first.
03:40So what's going on?
03:41Here's your dip in the jet stream all the way in here.
03:44You could already see moisture.
03:45You see that green there?
03:46That's some energy.
03:48Watch moving forward what happens on the European.
03:51European starts taking that moisture northward, but I think what it's keying on is the upper low
03:57itself in here.
03:58That's going to take it across the Gulf of Mexico in here.
04:01You see that?
04:02See what it does?
04:03And then all of a sudden, you've got this energy going into Florida.
04:07It's weak.
04:09It's weak.
04:10It's not developing yet.
04:12In fact, let me show you the surface map on the European.
04:14You can see what I mean.
04:15As we get into Friday, Saturday, here it goes, Saturday, Sunday.
04:19There is a little area of low pressure in here, but it's very weak in here, and it goes across
04:24Florida when Monday into Tuesday with some heavy rain, but very weak, low pressure.
04:30The Europeans suggest it's not going to develop.
04:33Now, the American model usually is overdone with tropical development.
04:38It always is.
04:40I want to show it to you anyway.
04:42I just want to tell you, I don't believe it as far as what it's showing as far as the
04:48strength of the system, but it does show how you get homegrown development.
04:52Watch what happens.
04:53So you've got this dip in the jet stream right in here.
04:56Here it comes.
04:57Now, watch what happens.
04:58What it suggests is that the energy and moisture already in Latin America has kind of come northward.
05:05This is Saturday, Sunday, Monday.
05:08All of a sudden, look what it does.
05:10It develops it into a tropical, at least a tropical storm.
05:13Look at that.
05:15In the Gulf, and it sits there as we get into the latter half of next week.
05:19Now, I'm skeptical that that is correct, but I do believe it shows the threat that you've
05:25got something coming out into the Gulf of Mexico, whether it's the upper low that's forming
05:31or you're bringing tropical moisture northward and a low pressure tries to form in the Gulf
05:36early next week.
05:37Now, one of the things I like looking at here is the surface map.
05:43And again, here's the surface map on the GFS.
05:46And you can see it shows an area of low pressure moving into the Gulf as we get into Tuesday
05:52and Wednesday.
05:53The European has the same time frame, Monday into Tuesday, much weaker in coming into Florida.
06:00I think this area has to be watched.
06:02I do not believe that if anything would strengthen in here, this would be anything more than a
06:08tropical storm or a subtropical storm.
06:10I do not believe this would be a hurricane.
06:12Hurricanes in June are rare.
06:14But it does show you the threat in the Gulf as we head into early next week.
06:20And when you look at our forecast map, this is why we have this map here showing you what?
06:27That there's a low probability, especially as we get in the early next week.
06:32Yucatan Peninsula, Florida in here.
06:34I think you're going to have to watch this.
06:36Is the probability high?
06:38It is not.
06:40But it's not low either.
06:42Homegrown development.
06:44We're going to keep an eye on it.
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